Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
