Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
